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What affects gold prices: real yields, the dollar and inflation (October 2026)

Last updated Oct 30, 2026, 11:57 PM ET

Three drivers, explained, not predicted: the 10-year real yield was 2.64% on Oct 22, 2026 (FRED DFII10), the broad dollar index 121.40 on Oct 16, 2026 (FRED DTWEXBGS) and CPI inflation 3.72% for the 12 months to September 2026 (FRED CPIAUCSL). Gold spot we recorded: $3,876.40 on Oct 30, 2026.

By GoldGuy. Page text updated Oct 25, 2026; prices refresh about hourly (how we check prices).

The drivers at a glance

“pts” = percentage points. FRED data fetched Oct 24, 2026, 8:09 PM ET. Our gold record is younger than a month, so its change is shown since the record began.

Gold vs the 10-year real yield

Real yield and the dollar over the last 12 months

CPI inflation, last 12 months

Source: FRED CPIAUCSL, latest month September 2026, last updated by FRED 2026-10-14.

Search interest next to the drivers

How often people in the US searched Google for gold, month by month, shown beside the monthly averages of the drivers above. Search interest is a 0–100 relative scale (100 = the busiest day for the terms compared in that request), so it shows the shape of interest over time, not the number of searches. “gold price” was compared with “silver price” in the same request; “sell gold” was compared with “sell silver” in the same request.

Search interest: Google Trends, United States, past 3 months, daily values, collected Oct 24, 2026; the partial current day is excluded; latest full day Oct 23, 2026 = 77 for “gold price”. Monthly values are simple averages of the daily values (days counted in brackets). Real yield and dollar index: FRED DFII10 and DTWEXBGS daily observations in each month. Gold: BPC recorded spot, weekdays only, from Oct 15, 2026. The first and last months are partial. In October, the real yield ran from 2.95% (Oct 5, 2026) to 2.64% (Oct 22, 2026), so the month's 2.84% average sits above the latest 2.64% (Oct 22, 2026).

How these drivers have related to gold

This is background, not a forecast. Relationships between gold and economic data change over time and can disappear for years.

• Real yields: a higher inflation-adjusted return on Treasuries raises the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, which is why the two are often watched together. How closely they move opposite each other varies; the chart above shows our own short record.
• The dollar: gold is priced in US dollars worldwide, so a stronger dollar has often coincided with a weaker gold price in dollar terms, and the reverse.
• Inflation: gold is often discussed as an inflation hedge, but over short and medium periods its link to the CPI rate has been inconsistent. Inflation also feeds into real yields, so the two drivers overlap.
• Other forces not shown here, such as central-bank buying, jewelry demand, geopolitical events and investor flows, can outweigh all three.

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Sources and method

• 10-year real yield: FRED DFII10, Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed. Daily, percent. Federal Reserve H.15 release. Latest observation Oct 22, 2026.
• US dollar index: FRED DTWEXBGS, Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index: the Fed's broad trade-weighted index (Jan 2006 = 100), not the ICE DXY. Daily, published weekly with the H.10 release. Latest observation Oct 16, 2026.
• Inflation: FRED CPIAUCSL, Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average, seasonally adjusted index (1982–84 = 100) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We show the 12-month percent change: this month's index ÷ the index 12 months earlier − 1. Latest month September 2026 (index 336.298).
• Gold spot: Bullion Price Check's own recorded gold spot (gold-api.com feed, recorded at each price check), US$ per troy ounce. FRED no longer publishes the LBMA gold series (GOLDAMGBD228NLBM, GOLDPMGBD228NLBM); checked Oct 24, 2026. So the gold figures are our own recorded spot from the gold-api.com feed, the last value of each US Eastern weekday; weekends are left out because spot does not trade. Record starts Oct 15, 2026.
• Updates: FRED data is refreshed monthly (and on demand); the gold line updates with our regular price checks. FRED publishes with a lag of about one day (real yield) to two weeks (CPI).
• FRED data fetched Oct 24, 2026, 8:09 PM ET from the FRED API, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Machine-readable copy of the values on this page: fred.json and bpc-gold-spot-daily.json.
• Changes compare the latest observation with the last observation on or before the same date one month and twelve months earlier. Nothing is estimated or filled in.

Educational information only. Not investment advice and not a forecast. Bullion Price Check is a price-comparison site; it does not sell metal.

Frequently asked questions

What affects gold prices?

Many things at once. What drives the gold price is a mix of real interest rates (the 10-year TIPS yield), the US dollar's exchange value, inflation, and demand from central banks, jewelers and investors. This page tracks the first three with official FRED data next to the gold spot price we record. It explains the links; it does not forecast prices.

Why do real yields matter for gold?

Gold pays no interest. When inflation-adjusted Treasury yields are high, holding gold means giving up more real income; when they are low, that cost is smaller. The link is loose: it has held in some periods and broken down in others, so compare the two lines on the chart above rather than assume it.